Daily Papers

Humans have a powerful and mysterious capacity to reason. By working through a series of purely mental steps, we can make inferences we would not be capable of making directly -- despite the fact that we get no additional data from the world. Similarly, when large language models generate a series of intermediate steps (a chain of thought) before answering a question, they often produce better answers than they otherwise would. We investigate why and how chain-of-thought reasoning is useful in language models, testing the hypothesis that reasoning is effective when training data consists of local clusters of variables that influence each other strongly. These training conditions enable the chaining of accurate local inferences in order to estimate relationships between variables that were not seen together in training. We prove that there will exist a "reasoning gap", where reasoning through intermediate variables improves inference, for the simple case of an autoregressive density estimator trained on local samples from a chain-structured probabilistic model. We then test our hypothesis empirically in more complex models, training an autoregressive language model on samples from Bayes nets but only including a subset of variables in each sample. We test language models' ability to match conditional probabilities with and without intermediate reasoning steps, finding that intermediate steps are only helpful when the training data is locally structured with respect to dependencies between variables and that the combination of locally-structured observations and reasoning is much more data-efficient than training on all variables. Our results illustrate how the effectiveness of reasoning step by step is rooted in the local statistical structure of the training data.

Probabilistic models of language understanding are valuable tools for investigating human language use. However, they need to be hand-designed for a particular domain. In contrast, large language models (LLMs) are trained on text that spans a wide array of domains, but they lack the structure and interpretability of probabilistic models. In this paper, we use chain-of-thought prompts to introduce structures from probabilistic models into LLMs. We explore this approach in the case of metaphor understanding. Our chain-of-thought prompts lead language models to infer latent variables and reason about their relationships in order to choose appropriate paraphrases for metaphors. The latent variables and relationships chosen are informed by theories of metaphor understanding from cognitive psychology. We apply these prompts to the two largest versions of GPT-3 and show that they can improve performance in a paraphrase selection task.

While electroencephalogram (EEG) has been a crucial tool for monitoring the brain and diagnosing neurological disorders (e.g., epilepsy), learning meaningful representations from raw EEG signals remains challenging due to limited annotations and high signal variability. Recently, EEG foundation models (FMs) have shown promising potential by adopting transformer architectures and self-supervised pre-training methods from large language models (e.g., masked prediction) to learn representations from diverse EEG data, followed by fine-tuning on specific EEG tasks. Nonetheless, these large models often incurred high computational costs during both training and inference, with only marginal performance improvements as model size increases. In this work, we proposed EEG representation learning framework building upon Generative Diffusion Model (EEGDM). Specifically, we developed structured state-space model for diffusion pretraining (SSMDP) to better capture the temporal dynamics of EEG signals and trained the architecture using a Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model. The resulting latent EEG representations were then used for downstream classification tasks via our proposed latent fusion transformer (LFT). To evaluate our method, we used the multi-event Temple University EEG Event Corpus and compared EEGDM with current state-of-the-art approaches, including EEG FMs. Empirical results showed that our method outperformed existing methods while being approximately 19x more lightweight. These findings suggested that EEGDM offered a promising alternative to current FMs. Our code is available at: https://github.com/jhpuah/EEGDM.

Human cognition excels at transcending sensory input and forming latent representations that structure our understanding of the world. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) can produce chain-of-thought reasoning, they lack a principled framework to capture latent structures and model uncertainty, especially in compositional reasoning tasks. We propose Verbalized Probabilistic Graphical Modeling (vPGM), a Bayesian prompting framework that guides LLMs to simulate key principles of Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) in natural language. Unlike many traditional probabilistic methods requiring substantial domain expertise or specialized training, vPGM bypasses expert-driven model design, making it well-suited for scenarios with limited assumptions or scarce data. We evaluated our model on several compositional reasoning tasks, both close-ended and open-ended. Our results indicate that the model effectively enhances confidence calibration and text generation quality.

The last decade has witnessed a boom of deep learning research and applications achieving state-of-the-art results in various domains. However, most advances have been established empirically, and their theoretical analysis remains lacking. One major issue is that our current interpretation of neural networks (NNs) as function approximators is too generic to support in-depth analysis. In this paper, we remedy this by proposing an alternative interpretation that identifies NNs as chain graphs (CGs) and feed-forward as an approximate inference procedure. The CG interpretation specifies the nature of each NN component within the rich theoretical framework of probabilistic graphical models, while at the same time remains general enough to cover real-world NNs with arbitrary depth, multi-branching and varied activations, as well as common structures including convolution / recurrent layers, residual block and dropout. We demonstrate with concrete examples that the CG interpretation can provide novel theoretical support and insights for various NN techniques, as well as derive new deep learning approaches such as the concept of partially collapsed feed-forward inference. It is thus a promising framework that deepens our understanding of neural networks and provides a coherent theoretical formulation for future deep learning research.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

We present Probabilistic Structure Integration (PSI), a system for learning richly controllable and flexibly promptable world models from data. PSI consists of a three-step cycle. The first step, Probabilistic prediction, involves building a probabilistic graphical model Psi of the data, in the form of a random-access autoregressive sequence model. Psi supports a complete set of learned conditional distributions describing the dependence of any variables in the data on any other set of variables. In step 2, Structure extraction, we show how to extract underlying low-dimensional properties in the data, corresponding to a diverse set of meaningful "intermediate structures", in a zero-shot fashion via causal inference on Psi. Step 3, Integration, completes the cycle by converting these structures into new token types that are then continually mixed back into the training diet as conditioning signals and prediction targets. Each such cycle augments the capabilities of Psi, both allowing it to model the underlying data better, and creating new control handles -- akin to an LLM-like universal prompting language. We train an instance of Psi on 1.4 trillion tokens of internet video data; we use it to perform a variety of useful video prediction and understanding inferences; we extract state-of-the-art optical flow, self-supervised depth and object segmentation; and we use these structures to support a full cycle of predictive improvements.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Predictive models often need to work with incomplete information in real-world tasks. Consequently, they must provide reliable probability or confidence estimation, especially in large-scale decision-making and planning tasks. Current large language models (LLMs) are insufficient for accurate estimations, but they can generate relevant factors that may affect the probabilities, produce coarse-grained probabilities when the information is more complete, and help determine which factors are relevant to specific downstream contexts. In this paper, we make use of these capabilities of LLMs to provide a significantly more accurate probabilistic estimation. We propose BIRD, a novel probabilistic inference framework that aligns a Bayesian network with LLM abductions and then estimates more accurate probabilities in a deduction step. We show BIRD provides reliable probability estimations that are 30% better than those provided directly by LLM baselines. These estimates further contribute to better and more trustworthy decision making.

We incorporate discrete and continuous time Markov processes as building blocks into probabilistic graphical models with latent and observed variables. We introduce the automatic Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) paradigm (Mider et al., 2021) for programmable inference on latent states and model parameters. Our starting point is a generative model, a forward description of the probabilistic process dynamics. We backpropagate the information provided by observations through the model to transform the generative (forward) model into a pre-conditional model guided by the data. It approximates the actual conditional model with known likelihood-ratio between the two. The backward filter and the forward change of measure are suitable to be incorporated into a probabilistic programming context because they can be formulated as a set of transformation rules. The guided generative model can be incorporated in different approaches to efficiently sample latent states and parameters conditional on observations. We show applicability in a variety of settings, including Markov chains with discrete state space, interacting particle systems, state space models, branching diffusions and Gamma processes.

Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework that unifies vastly different existing models, but also show great potential in modeling realistic data. We exhibit a simple class of PGCs that are not trivially subsumed by simple combinations of PCs and DPPs, and obtain competitive performance on a suite of density estimation benchmarks. We also highlight PGCs' connection to the theory of strongly Rayleigh distributions.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries (e.g., marginal probabilities). One key challenge is to scale PCs to model large and high-dimensional real-world datasets: we observe that as the number of parameters in PCs increases, their performance immediately plateaus. This phenomenon suggests that the existing optimizers fail to exploit the full expressive power of large PCs. We propose to overcome such bottleneck by latent variable distillation: we leverage the less tractable but more expressive deep generative models to provide extra supervision over the latent variables of PCs. Specifically, we extract information from Transformer-based generative models to assign values to latent variables of PCs, providing guidance to PC optimizers. Experiments on both image and language modeling benchmarks (e.g., ImageNet and WikiText-2) show that latent variable distillation substantially boosts the performance of large PCs compared to their counterparts without latent variable distillation. In particular, on the image modeling benchmarks, PCs achieve competitive performance against some of the widely-used deep generative models, including variational autoencoders and flow-based models, opening up new avenues for tractable generative modeling.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimportant sub-networks of the PC for model compression and comes with theoretical guarantees. The growing operation increases model capacity by increasing the size of the latent space. By alternatingly applying pruning and growing, we increase the capacity that is meaningfully used, allowing us to significantly scale up PC learning. Empirically, our learner achieves state-of-the-art likelihoods on MNIST-family image datasets and on Penn Tree Bank language data compared to other PC learners and less tractable deep generative models such as flow-based models and variational autoencoders (VAEs).

This work studies discrete diffusion probabilistic models with applications to natural language generation. We derive an alternative yet equivalent formulation of the sampling from discrete diffusion processes and leverage this insight to develop a family of reparameterized discrete diffusion models. The derived generic framework is highly flexible, offers a fresh perspective of the generation process in discrete diffusion models, and features more effective training and decoding techniques. We conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the text generation capability of our model, demonstrating significant improvements over existing diffusion models.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

We present a modular semantic account of Bayesian inference algorithms for probabilistic programming languages, as used in data science and machine learning. Sophisticated inference algorithms are often explained in terms of composition of smaller parts. However, neither their theoretical justification nor their implementation reflects this modularity. We show how to conceptualise and analyse such inference algorithms as manipulating intermediate representations of probabilistic programs using higher-order functions and inductive types, and their denotational semantics. Semantic accounts of continuous distributions use measurable spaces. However, our use of higher-order functions presents a substantial technical difficulty: it is impossible to define a measurable space structure over the collection of measurable functions between arbitrary measurable spaces that is compatible with standard operations on those functions, such as function application. We overcome this difficulty using quasi-Borel spaces, a recently proposed mathematical structure that supports both function spaces and continuous distributions. We define a class of semantic structures for representing probabilistic programs, and semantic validity criteria for transformations of these representations in terms of distribution preservation. We develop a collection of building blocks for composing representations. We use these building blocks to validate common inference algorithms such as Sequential Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To emphasize the connection between the semantic manipulation and its traditional measure theoretic origins, we use Kock's synthetic measure theory. We demonstrate its usefulness by proving a quasi-Borel counterpart to the Metropolis-Hastings-Green theorem.

In this paper, we propose a novel learning paradigm, termed Chain-of-Model (CoM), which incorporates the causal relationship into the hidden states of each layer as a chain style, thereby introducing great scaling efficiency in model training and inference flexibility in deployment. We introduce the concept of Chain-of-Representation (CoR), which formulates the hidden states at each layer as a combination of multiple sub-representations (i.e., chains) at the hidden dimension level. In each layer, each chain from the output representations can only view all of its preceding chains in the input representations. Consequently, the model built upon CoM framework can progressively scale up the model size by increasing the chains based on the previous models (i.e., chains), and offer multiple sub-models at varying sizes for elastic inference by using different chain numbers. Based on this principle, we devise Chain-of-Language-Model (CoLM), which incorporates the idea of CoM into each layer of Transformer architecture. Based on CoLM, we further introduce CoLM-Air by introducing a KV sharing mechanism, that computes all keys and values within the first chain and then shares across all chains. This design demonstrates additional extensibility, such as enabling seamless LM switching, prefilling acceleration and so on. Experimental results demonstrate our CoLM family can achieve comparable performance to the standard Transformer, while simultaneously enabling greater flexiblity, such as progressive scaling to improve training efficiency and offer multiple varying model sizes for elastic inference, paving a a new way toward building language models. Our code will be released in the future at: https://github.com/microsoft/CoLM.

We introduce Graph-Induced Sum-Product Networks (GSPNs), a new probabilistic framework for graph representation learning that can tractably answer probabilistic queries. Inspired by the computational trees induced by vertices in the context of message-passing neural networks, we build hierarchies of sum-product networks (SPNs) where the parameters of a parent SPN are learnable transformations of the a-posterior mixing probabilities of its children's sum units. Due to weight sharing and the tree-shaped computation graphs of GSPNs, we obtain the efficiency and efficacy of deep graph networks with the additional advantages of a probabilistic model. We show the model's competitiveness on scarce supervision scenarios, under missing data, and for graph classification in comparison to popular neural models. We complement the experiments with qualitative analyses on hyper-parameters and the model's ability to answer probabilistic queries.

A major challenge in structured prediction is to represent the interdependencies within output structures. When outputs are structured as sequences, linear-chain conditional random fields (CRFs) are a widely used model class which can learn local dependencies in the output. However, the CRF's Markov assumption makes it impossible for CRFs to represent distributions with nonlocal dependencies, and standard CRFs are unable to respect nonlocal constraints of the data (such as global arity constraints on output labels). We present a generalization of CRFs that can enforce a broad class of constraints, including nonlocal ones, by specifying the space of possible output structures as a regular language L. The resulting regular-constrained CRF (RegCCRF) has the same formal properties as a standard CRF, but assigns zero probability to all label sequences not in L. Notably, RegCCRFs can incorporate their constraints during training, while related models only enforce constraints during decoding. We prove that constrained training is never worse than constrained decoding, and show empirically that it can be substantially better in practice. Additionally, we demonstrate a practical benefit on downstream tasks by incorporating a RegCCRF into a deep neural model for semantic role labeling, exceeding state-of-the-art results on a standard dataset.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Continuous latent variables (LVs) are a key ingredient of many generative models, as they allow modelling expressive mixtures with an uncountable number of components. In contrast, probabilistic circuits (PCs) are hierarchical discrete mixtures represented as computational graphs composed of input, sum and product units. Unlike continuous LV models, PCs provide tractable inference but are limited to discrete LVs with categorical (i.e. unordered) states. We bridge these model classes by introducing probabilistic integral circuits (PICs), a new language of computational graphs that extends PCs with integral units representing continuous LVs. In the first place, PICs are symbolic computational graphs and are fully tractable in simple cases where analytical integration is possible. In practice, we parameterise PICs with light-weight neural nets delivering an intractable hierarchical continuous mixture that can be approximated arbitrarily well with large PCs using numerical quadrature. On several distribution estimation benchmarks, we show that such PIC-approximating PCs systematically outperform PCs commonly learned via expectation-maximization or SGD.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

Inspired by the foundational works by Spivak and Fong and Cruttwell et al., we introduce a categorical framework to formalize Bayesian inference and learning. The two key ideas at play here are the notions of Bayesian inversions and the functor GL as constructed by Cruttwell et al.. In this context, we find that Bayesian learning is the simplest case of the learning paradigm. We then obtain categorical formulations of batch and sequential Bayes updates while also verifying that the two coincide in a specific example.

Currently, it is hard to reap the benefits of deep learning for Bayesian methods, which allow the explicit specification of prior knowledge and accurately capture model uncertainty. We present Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs). PFNs leverage large-scale machine learning techniques to approximate a large set of posteriors. The only requirement for PFNs to work is the ability to sample from a prior distribution over supervised learning tasks (or functions). Our method restates the objective of posterior approximation as a supervised classification problem with a set-valued input: it repeatedly draws a task (or function) from the prior, draws a set of data points and their labels from it, masks one of the labels and learns to make probabilistic predictions for it based on the set-valued input of the rest of the data points. Presented with a set of samples from a new supervised learning task as input, PFNs make probabilistic predictions for arbitrary other data points in a single forward propagation, having learned to approximate Bayesian inference. We demonstrate that PFNs can near-perfectly mimic Gaussian processes and also enable efficient Bayesian inference for intractable problems, with over 200-fold speedups in multiple setups compared to current methods. We obtain strong results in very diverse areas such as Gaussian process regression, Bayesian neural networks, classification for small tabular data sets, and few-shot image classification, demonstrating the generality of PFNs. Code and trained PFNs are released at https://github.com/automl/TransformersCanDoBayesianInference.

Sequences have become first class citizens in supervised learning thanks to the resurgence of recurrent neural networks. Many complex tasks that require mapping from or to a sequence of observations can now be formulated with the sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) framework which employs the chain rule to efficiently represent the joint probability of sequences. In many cases, however, variable sized inputs and/or outputs might not be naturally expressed as sequences. For instance, it is not clear how to input a set of numbers into a model where the task is to sort them; similarly, we do not know how to organize outputs when they correspond to random variables and the task is to model their unknown joint probability. In this paper, we first show using various examples that the order in which we organize input and/or output data matters significantly when learning an underlying model. We then discuss an extension of the seq2seq framework that goes beyond sequences and handles input sets in a principled way. In addition, we propose a loss which, by searching over possible orders during training, deals with the lack of structure of output sets. We show empirical evidence of our claims regarding ordering, and on the modifications to the seq2seq framework on benchmark language modeling and parsing tasks, as well as two artificial tasks -- sorting numbers and estimating the joint probability of unknown graphical models.

In bipartite networks, community structures are restricted to being disassortative, in that nodes of one type are grouped according to common patterns of connection with nodes of the other type. This makes the stochastic block model (SBM), a highly flexible generative model for networks with block structure, an intuitive choice for bipartite community detection. However, typical formulations of the SBM do not make use of the special structure of bipartite networks. Here we introduce a Bayesian nonparametric formulation of the SBM and a corresponding algorithm to efficiently find communities in bipartite networks which parsimoniously chooses the number of communities. The biSBM improves community detection results over general SBMs when data are noisy, improves the model resolution limit by a factor of 2, and expands our understanding of the complicated optimization landscape associated with community detection tasks. A direct comparison of certain terms of the prior distributions in the biSBM and a related high-resolution hierarchical SBM also reveals a counterintuitive regime of community detection problems, populated by smaller and sparser networks, where nonhierarchical models outperform their more flexible counterpart.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in numerous real-world applications. While the vast majority of research conducted from an experimental perspective is progressing rapidly, it demands substantial computational power, data, and other resources. Therefore, how to open the black-box of LLMs from a theoretical standpoint has become a critical challenge. This paper takes the theory of rate-distortion function, directed information, and Granger causality as its starting point to investigate the information-theoretic principles behind LLMs, leading to the development of semantic information theory for LLMs, where the fundamental unit is token, rather than bits that lacks any semantic meaning. By defining the probabilistic model of LLMs, we discuss structure-agnostic information-theoretic measures, such as the directed rate-distortion function in pre-training, the directed rate-reward function in post-training, and the semantic information flow in inference phase. This paper also delves deeply into the theory of token-level semantic embedding and the information-theoretically optimal vectorization method. Thereafter, we propose a general definition of autoregression LLM, where the Transformer architecture and its performance such as ELBO, generalization error bound, memory capacity, and semantic information measures can be derived theoretically. Other architectures, such as Mamba/Mamba2 and LLaDA, are also discussed in our framework. Consequently, this paper provides a theoretical framework for understanding LLMs from the perspective of semantic information theory, which also offers the necessary theoretical tools for further in-depth research.

Probabilistic graphical models are traditionally known for their successes in generative modeling. In this work, we advocate layered graphical models (LGMs) for probabilistic discriminative learning. To this end, we design LGMs in close analogy to neural networks (NNs), that is, they have deep hierarchical structures and convolutional or local connections between layers. Equipped with tensorized truncated variational inference, our LGMs can be efficiently trained via backpropagation on mainstream deep learning frameworks such as PyTorch. To deal with continuous valued inputs, we use a simple yet effective soft-clamping strategy for efficient inference. Through extensive experiments on image classification over MNIST and FashionMNIST datasets, we demonstrate that LGMs are capable of achieving competitive results comparable to NNs of similar architectures, while preserving transparent probabilistic modeling.

We propose a novel Chain Guided Retriever-reader ({\tt CGR}) framework to model the reasoning chain for multi-hop Science Question Answering. Our framework is capable of performing explainable reasoning without the need of any corpus-specific annotations, such as the ground-truth reasoning chain, or human-annotated entity mentions. Specifically, we first generate reasoning chains from a semantic graph constructed by Abstract Meaning Representation of retrieved evidence facts. A Chain-aware loss, concerning both local and global chain information, is also designed to enable the generated chains to serve as distant supervision signals for training the retriever, where reinforcement learning is also adopted to maximize the utility of the reasoning chains. Our framework allows the retriever to capture step-by-step clues of the entire reasoning process, which is not only shown to be effective on two challenging multi-hop Science QA tasks, namely OpenBookQA and ARC-Challenge, but also favors explainability.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Autoregressive large language models (LLMs) compress knowledge from their training data through next-token conditional distributions. This limits tractable querying of this knowledge to start-to-end autoregressive sampling. However, many tasks of interest -- including sequence continuation, infilling, and other forms of constrained generation -- involve sampling from intractable posterior distributions. We address this limitation by using amortized Bayesian inference to sample from these intractable posteriors. Such amortization is algorithmically achieved by fine-tuning LLMs via diversity-seeking reinforcement learning algorithms: generative flow networks (GFlowNets). We empirically demonstrate that this distribution-matching paradigm of LLM fine-tuning can serve as an effective alternative to maximum-likelihood training and reward-maximizing policy optimization. As an important application, we interpret chain-of-thought reasoning as a latent variable modeling problem and demonstrate that our approach enables data-efficient adaptation of LLMs to tasks that require multi-step rationalization and tool use.

Temporal point processes are the dominant paradigm for modeling sequences of events happening at irregular intervals. The standard way of learning in such models is by estimating the conditional intensity function. However, parameterizing the intensity function usually incurs several trade-offs. We show how to overcome the limitations of intensity-based approaches by directly modeling the conditional distribution of inter-event times. We draw on the literature on normalizing flows to design models that are flexible and efficient. We additionally propose a simple mixture model that matches the flexibility of flow-based models, but also permits sampling and computing moments in closed form. The proposed models achieve state-of-the-art performance in standard prediction tasks and are suitable for novel applications, such as learning sequence embeddings and imputing missing data.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

We marry ideas from deep neural networks and approximate Bayesian inference to derive a generalised class of deep, directed generative models, endowed with a new algorithm for scalable inference and learning. Our algorithm introduces a recognition model to represent approximate posterior distributions, and that acts as a stochastic encoder of the data. We develop stochastic back-propagation -- rules for back-propagation through stochastic variables -- and use this to develop an algorithm that allows for joint optimisation of the parameters of both the generative and recognition model. We demonstrate on several real-world data sets that the model generates realistic samples, provides accurate imputations of missing data and is a useful tool for high-dimensional data visualisation.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

We study the problem of optimally projecting the transition matrix of a finite ergodic multivariate Markov chain onto a lower-dimensional state space. Specifically, we seek to construct a projected Markov chain that optimizes various information-theoretic criteria under cardinality constraints. These criteria include entropy rate, information-theoretic distance to factorizability, independence, and stationarity. We formulate these tasks as best subset selection problems over multivariate Markov chains and leverage the submodular (or supermodular) structure of the objective functions to develop efficient greedy-based algorithms with theoretical guarantees. We extend our analysis to k-submodular settings and introduce a generalized version of the distorted greedy algorithm, which may be of independent interest. Finally, we illustrate the theory and algorithms through extensive numerical experiments with publicly available code on multivariate Markov chains associated with the Bernoulli-Laplace and Curie-Weiss model.

This review paper is intended for the 2nd edition of the Handbook of Markov chain Monte Carlo. We provide an introduction to approximate inference techniques as Bayesian computation methods applied to deep learning models. We organize the chapter by presenting popular computational methods for Bayesian neural networks and deep generative models, explaining their unique challenges in posterior inference as well as the solutions.

Large language models perform near-Bayesian inference yet violate permutation invariance on exchangeable data. We resolve this by showing transformers minimize expected conditional description length (cross-entropy) over orderings, E_pi[ell(Y mid Gamma_pi(X))], which admits a Kolmogorov-complexity interpretation up to additive constants, rather than the permutation-invariant description length ell(Y mid X). This makes them Bayesian in expectation, not in realization. We derive (i) a Quantified Martingale Violation bound showing order-induced deviations scale as O(log n) with constants; (ii) the Expectation-level Decompression Law linking information budgets to reliability for Bernoulli predicates; and (iii) deployable planners (B2T/RoH/ISR) for answer/abstain decisions. Empirically, permutation dispersion follows a+bln n (Qwen2-7B b approx 0.377, Llama-3.1-8B b approx 0.147); permutation mixtures improve ground-truth likelihood/accuracy; and randomized dose-response shows hallucinations drop by sim 0.13 per additional nat. A pre-specified audit with a fixed ISR=1.0 achieves near-0\% hallucinations via calibrated refusal at 24\% abstention. The framework turns hallucinations into predictable compression failures and enables principled information budgeting.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We present a probabilistic model for point cloud generation, which is fundamental for various 3D vision tasks such as shape completion, upsampling, synthesis and data augmentation. Inspired by the diffusion process in non-equilibrium thermodynamics, we view points in point clouds as particles in a thermodynamic system in contact with a heat bath, which diffuse from the original distribution to a noise distribution. Point cloud generation thus amounts to learning the reverse diffusion process that transforms the noise distribution to the distribution of a desired shape. Specifically, we propose to model the reverse diffusion process for point clouds as a Markov chain conditioned on certain shape latent. We derive the variational bound in closed form for training and provide implementations of the model. Experimental results demonstrate that our model achieves competitive performance in point cloud generation and auto-encoding. The code is available at https://github.com/luost26/diffusion-point-cloud.

Effective implementations of sampling-based probabilistic inference often require manually constructed, model-specific proposals. Inspired by recent progresses in meta-learning for training learning agents that can generalize to unseen environments, we propose a meta-learning approach to building effective and generalizable MCMC proposals. We parametrize the proposal as a neural network to provide fast approximations to block Gibbs conditionals. The learned neural proposals generalize to occurrences of common structural motifs across different models, allowing for the construction of a library of learned inference primitives that can accelerate inference on unseen models with no model-specific training required. We explore several applications including open-universe Gaussian mixture models, in which our learned proposals outperform a hand-tuned sampler, and a real-world named entity recognition task, in which our sampler yields higher final F1 scores than classical single-site Gibbs sampling.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

Large language models (LLMs) are capable of answering knowledge-intensive complex questions with chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning. However, they tend to generate factually incorrect reasoning steps when the required knowledge is not available or up-to-date in models' parameters. Recent works turn to retrieving external knowledge to augment CoT reasoning. Despite being promising, these chain-based methods suffer from: 1) Negative retrieval. Unnecessary or incorrect retrieval may mislead the reasoning; 2) Limited sight. Lacking the ability to look backward or forward, a local error in one step will propagate along the chain. In this paper, we propose a novel approach: Probabilistic Tree-of-thought Reasoning (ProbTree). First, LLMs translate a complex question into a query tree, in which each non-root node denotes a sub-question of its parent node. Then, probabilistic reasoning is conducted over the tree, by solving questions from leaf to root considering the confidence of both question decomposing and answering. During reasoning, for leaf nodes, LLMs choose a more confident answer from Closed-book QA that employs parametric knowledge and Open-book QA that employs retrieved external knowledge, thus eliminating the negative retrieval problem. For non-leaf nodes, with the hierarchical structure, LLMs have broader sights and are able to globally reason with the information from child nodes, thus recovering from local errors. The experiments on three Complex QA datasets under the open-domain setting show that our approach outperforms SOTA methods significantly, demonstrating the effect of probabilistic tree-of-thought reasoning.

The field of Explainable AI (XAI) is seeking to shed light on the inner workings of complex AI models and uncover the rationale behind their decisions. One of the models gaining attention are probabilistic circuits (PCs), which are a general and unified framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various probabilistic queries. Probabilistic circuits guarantee inference that is polynomial in the size of the circuit. In this paper, we improve the explainability of probabilistic circuits by computing a comprehensible, readable logical theory that covers the high-density regions generated by a PC. To achieve this, pruning approaches based on generative significance are used in a new method called PUTPUT (Probabilistic circuit Understanding Through Pruning Underlying logical Theories). The method is applied to a real world use case where music playlists are automatically generated and expressed as readable (database) queries. Evaluation shows that this approach can effectively produce a comprehensible logical theory that describes the high-density regions of a PC and outperforms state of the art methods when exploring the performance-comprehensibility trade-off.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

State-of-the-art language models are autoregressive and operate on subword units known as tokens. Specifically, one must encode the conditioning string into a list of tokens before passing to the language models for next-token prediction. We show that popular encoding schemes, such as maximum prefix encoding (MPE) and byte-pair-encoding (BPE), induce a sampling bias that cannot be mitigated with more training or data. To counter this universal problem, for each encoding scheme above, we propose a novel algorithm to obtain unbiased estimates from any language model trained on tokenized data. Our methods do not require finetuning the model, and the complexity, defined as the number of model runs, scales linearly with the sequence length in the case of MPE. As a result, we show that one can simulate token-free behavior from a tokenized language model. We empirically verify the correctness of our method through a Markov-chain setup, where it accurately recovers the transition probabilities, as opposed to the conventional method of directly prompting tokens into the language model.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

Anomaly detection plays an important role in modern data-driven security applications, such as detecting suspicious access to a socket from a process. In many cases, such events can be described as a collection of categorical values that are considered as entities of different types, which we call heterogeneous categorical events. Due to the lack of intrinsic distance measures among entities, and the exponentially large event space, most existing work relies heavily on heuristics to calculate abnormal scores for events. Different from previous work, we propose a principled and unified probabilistic model APE (Anomaly detection via Probabilistic pairwise interaction and Entity embedding) that directly models the likelihood of events. In this model, we embed entities into a common latent space using their observed co-occurrence in different events. More specifically, we first model the compatibility of each pair of entities according to their embeddings. Then we utilize the weighted pairwise interactions of different entity types to define the event probability. Using Noise-Contrastive Estimation with "context-dependent" noise distribution, our model can be learned efficiently regardless of the large event space. Experimental results on real enterprise surveillance data show that our methods can accurately detect abnormal events compared to other state-of-the-art abnormal detection techniques.

We study the problem of combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning. Recently introduced frameworks for Probabilistic Neurosymbolic Learning (PNL), such as DeepProbLog, perform exponential-time exact inference, limiting the scalability of PNL solutions. We introduce Approximate Neurosymbolic Inference (A-NeSI): a new framework for PNL that uses neural networks for scalable approximate inference. A-NeSI 1) performs approximate inference in polynomial time without changing the semantics of probabilistic logics; 2) is trained using data generated by the background knowledge; 3) can generate symbolic explanations of predictions; and 4) can guarantee the satisfaction of logical constraints at test time, which is vital in safety-critical applications. Our experiments show that A-NeSI is the first end-to-end method to solve three neurosymbolic tasks with exponential combinatorial scaling. Finally, our experiments show that A-NeSI achieves explainability and safety without a penalty in performance.

We propose a novel interpretation technique to explain the behavior of structured output models, which learn mappings between an input vector to a set of output variables simultaneously. Because of the complex relationship between the computational path of output variables in structured models, a feature can affect the value of output through other ones. We focus on one of the outputs as the target and try to find the most important features utilized by the structured model to decide on the target in each locality of the input space. In this paper, we assume an arbitrary structured output model is available as a black box and argue how considering the correlations between output variables can improve the explanation performance. The goal is to train a function as an interpreter for the target output variable over the input space. We introduce an energy-based training process for the interpreter function, which effectively considers the structural information incorporated into the model to be explained. The effectiveness of the proposed method is confirmed using a variety of simulated and real data sets.

The lack of transparency of Deep Neural Networks continues to be a limitation that severely undermines their reliability and usage in high-stakes applications. Promising approaches to overcome such limitations are Prototype-Based Self-Explainable Neural Networks (PSENNs), whose predictions rely on the similarity between the input at hand and a set of prototypical representations of the output classes, offering therefore a deep, yet transparent-by-design, architecture. So far, such models have been designed by considering pointwise estimates for the prototypes, which remain fixed after the learning phase of the model. In this paper, we introduce a probabilistic reformulation of PSENNs, called Prob-PSENN, which replaces point estimates for the prototypes with probability distributions over their values. This provides not only a more flexible framework for an end-to-end learning of prototypes, but can also capture the explanatory uncertainty of the model, which is a missing feature in previous approaches. In addition, since the prototypes determine both the explanation and the prediction, Prob-PSENNs allow us to detect when the model is making uninformed or uncertain predictions, and to obtain valid explanations for them. Our experiments demonstrate that Prob-PSENNs provide more meaningful and robust explanations than their non-probabilistic counterparts, thus enhancing the explainability and reliability of the models.

Large language models (LLMs) have proven to be remarkably efficient, both across a wide range of natural language processing tasks and well beyond them. However, a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the origins of their impressive performance remains elusive. In this paper, we approach this challenging task by drawing an equivalence between generic autoregressive language models with vocabulary of size T and context window of size K and Markov chains defined on a finite state space of size O(T^K). We derive several surprising findings related to the existence of a stationary distribution of Markov chains that capture the inference power of LLMs, their speed of convergence to it, and the influence of the temperature on the latter. We then prove pre-training and in-context generalization bounds and show how the drawn equivalence allows us to enrich their interpretation. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical guarantees with experiments on several recent LLMs to highlight how they capture the behavior observed in practice.

Popular approaches for quantifying predictive uncertainty in deep neural networks often involve distributions over weights or multiple models, for instance via Markov Chain sampling, ensembling, or Monte Carlo dropout. These techniques usually incur overhead by having to train multiple model instances or do not produce very diverse predictions. This comprehensive and extensive survey aims to familiarize the reader with an alternative class of models based on the concept of Evidential Deep Learning: For unfamiliar data, they aim to admit "what they don't know", and fall back onto a prior belief. Furthermore, they allow uncertainty estimation in a single model and forward pass by parameterizing distributions over distributions. This survey recapitulates existing works, focusing on the implementation in a classification setting, before surveying the application of the same paradigm to regression. We also reflect on the strengths and weaknesses compared to other existing methods and provide the most fundamental derivations using a unified notation to aid future research.

We introduce Minary, a computational framework designed as a candidate for the first formally provable autopoietic primitive. Minary represents interacting probabilistic events as multi-dimensional vectors and combines them via linear superposition rather than multiplicative scalar operations, thereby preserving uncertainty and enabling constructive and destructive interference in the range [-1,1]. A fixed set of ``perspectives'' evaluates ``semantic dimensions'' according to hidden competencies, and their interactions drive two discrete-time stochastic processes. We model this system as an iterated random affine map and use the theory of iterated random functions to prove that it converges in distribution to a unique stationary law; we moreover obtain an explicit closed form for the limiting expectation in terms of row, column, and global averages of the competency matrix. We then derive exact formulas for the mean and variance of the normalized consensus conditioned on the activation of a given semantic dimension, revealing how consensus depends on competency structure rather than raw input signals. Finally, we argue that Minary is organizationally closed yet operationally open in the sense of Maturana and Varela, and we discuss implications for building self-maintaining, distributed, and parallelizable computational systems that house a uniquely subjective notion of identity.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization and analysis of many aspects of machine learning. Using categorical methods, we construct models for parametric and nonparametric Bayesian reasoning on function spaces, thus providing a basis for the supervised learning problem. In particular, stochastic processes are arrows to these function spaces which serve as prior probabilities. The resulting inference maps can often be analytically constructed in this symmetric monoidal weakly closed category. We also show how to view general stochastic processes using functor categories and demonstrate the Kalman filter as an archetype for the hidden Markov model.

Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a PC can exceed that of its teacher model. Therefore, instead of performing distillation from the most expressive deep generative model, we study what properties the teacher model and the PC should have in order to achieve good distillation performance. This leads to a generic algorithmic improvement as well as other data-type-specific ones over the existing latent variable distillation pipeline. Empirically, we outperform SoTA TPMs by a large margin on challenging image modeling benchmarks. In particular, on ImageNet32, PCs achieve 4.06 bits-per-dimension, which is only 0.34 behind variational diffusion models (Kingma et al., 2021).

We present a state-of-the-art model for fine-grained probability estimation of propositions conditioned on context. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have significantly enhanced their reasoning capabilities, particularly on well-defined tasks with complete information. However, LLMs continue to struggle with making accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic predictions under uncertainty or partial information. While incorporating uncertainty into model predictions often boosts performance, obtaining reliable estimates of that uncertainty remains understudied. In particular, LLM probability estimates tend to be coarse and biased towards more frequent numbers. Through a combination of human and synthetic data creation and assessment, scaling to larger models, and better supervision, we propose a set of strong and precise probability estimation models. We conduct systematic evaluations across tasks that rely on conditional probability estimation and show that our approach consistently outperforms existing fine-tuned and prompting-based methods by a large margin.

This paper introduces Bayesian Flow Networks (BFNs), a new class of generative model in which the parameters of a set of independent distributions are modified with Bayesian inference in the light of noisy data samples, then passed as input to a neural network that outputs a second, interdependent distribution. Starting from a simple prior and iteratively updating the two distributions yields a generative procedure similar to the reverse process of diffusion models; however it is conceptually simpler in that no forward process is required. Discrete and continuous-time loss functions are derived for continuous, discretised and discrete data, along with sample generation procedures. Notably, the network inputs for discrete data lie on the probability simplex, and are therefore natively differentiable, paving the way for gradient-based sample guidance and few-step generation in discrete domains such as language modelling. The loss function directly optimises data compression and places no restrictions on the network architecture. In our experiments BFNs achieve competitive log-likelihoods for image modelling on dynamically binarized MNIST and CIFAR-10, and outperform all known discrete diffusion models on the text8 character-level language modelling task.

A wide variety of model explanation approaches have been proposed in recent years, all guided by very different rationales and heuristics. In this paper, we take a new route and cast interpretability as a statistical inference problem. We propose a general deep probabilistic model designed to produce interpretable predictions. The model parameters can be learned via maximum likelihood, and the method can be adapted to any predictor network architecture and any type of prediction problem. Our method is a case of amortized interpretability models, where a neural network is used as a selector to allow for fast interpretation at inference time. Several popular interpretability methods are shown to be particular cases of regularised maximum likelihood for our general model. We propose new datasets with ground truth selection which allow for the evaluation of the features importance map. Using these datasets, we show experimentally that using multiple imputation provides more reasonable interpretations.

The Bayesian treatment of neural networks dictates that a prior distribution is specified over their weight and bias parameters. This poses a challenge because modern neural networks are characterized by a large number of parameters, and the choice of these priors has an uncontrolled effect on the induced functional prior, which is the distribution of the functions obtained by sampling the parameters from their prior distribution. We argue that this is a hugely limiting aspect of Bayesian deep learning, and this work tackles this limitation in a practical and effective way. Our proposal is to reason in terms of functional priors, which are easier to elicit, and to "tune" the priors of neural network parameters in a way that they reflect such functional priors. Gaussian processes offer a rigorous framework to define prior distributions over functions, and we propose a novel and robust framework to match their prior with the functional prior of neural networks based on the minimization of their Wasserstein distance. We provide vast experimental evidence that coupling these priors with scalable Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling offers systematically large performance improvements over alternative choices of priors and state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches. We consider this work a considerable step in the direction of making the long-standing challenge of carrying out a fully Bayesian treatment of neural networks, including convolutional neural networks, a concrete possibility.

We generalise an existing construction of Bayesian Lenses to admit lenses between pairs of objects where the backwards object is dependent on states on the forwards object (interpreted as probability distributions). This gives a natural setting for studying stochastic maps with Bayesian inverses restricted to the points supported by a given prior. In order to state this formally we develop a proposed definition by Fritz of a support object in a Markov category and show that these give rise to a section into the category of dependent Bayesian lenses encoding a more canonical notion of Bayesian inversion.

Bayes' rule tells us how to invert a causal process in order to update our beliefs in light of new evidence. If the process is believed to have a complex compositional structure, we may observe that the inversion of the whole can be computed piecewise in terms of the component processes. We study the structure of this compositional rule, noting that it relates to the lens pattern in functional programming. Working in a suitably general axiomatic presentation of a category of Markov kernels, we see how we can think of Bayesian inversion as a particular instance of a state-dependent morphism in a fibred category. We discuss the compositional nature of this, formulated as a functor on the underlying category and explore how this can used for a more type-driven approach to statistical inference.

Semantic word embeddings represent the meaning of a word via a vector, and are created by diverse methods. Many use nonlinear operations on co-occurrence statistics, and have hand-tuned hyperparameters and reweighting methods. This paper proposes a new generative model, a dynamic version of the log-linear topic model of~mnih2007three. The methodological novelty is to use the prior to compute closed form expressions for word statistics. This provides a theoretical justification for nonlinear models like PMI, word2vec, and GloVe, as well as some hyperparameter choices. It also helps explain why low-dimensional semantic embeddings contain linear algebraic structure that allows solution of word analogies, as shown by~mikolov2013efficient and many subsequent papers. Experimental support is provided for the generative model assumptions, the most important of which is that latent word vectors are fairly uniformly dispersed in space.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

In this work, we consider rather general and broad class of Markov chains, Ito chains, that look like Euler-Maryama discretization of some Stochastic Differential Equation. The chain we study is a unified framework for theoretical analysis. It comes with almost arbitrary isotropic and state-dependent noise instead of normal and state-independent one as in most related papers. Moreover, in our chain the drift and diffusion coefficient can be inexact in order to cover wide range of applications as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, sampling, Stochastic Gradient Descent or Stochastic Gradient Boosting. We prove the bound in W_{2}-distance between the laws of our Ito chain and corresponding differential equation. These results improve or cover most of the known estimates. And for some particular cases, our analysis is the first.

In many applications of LLMs, natural language responses often have an underlying structure such as representing discrete labels, numerical values, or graphs. Yet, existing decoding and uncertainty estimation methods operate only in language space and largely disregard structural information. We address this by modeling LLM outputs directly in a task-dependent latent structure. By equipping this structure with a dissimilarity measure, we can compute Bayes-optimal responses. These are not selected from sampled generations but are newly synthesized by combining individual responses in the latent space. Across different tasks, Bayes-optimal responses consistently outperform standard decoding methods like beam search. Moreover, quantifying uncertainty via the induced Bayesian risk captures variations in terms of the latent structure and improves alignment with output quality and correctness. Our decision-theoretic framework is applicable to any problem that admits a latent response structure and enables reliable task-aware LLM predictions.

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification but is often limited by challenges of prior elicitation, likelihood misspecification, and computational burden. The martingale posterior (MGP, Fong et al., 2023) offers an alternative, replacing prior-likelihood elicitation with a predictive rule - namely, a sequence of one-step-ahead predictive distributions - for forward data generation. The utility of MGPs depends on the choice of predictive rule, yet the literature has offered few compelling examples. Foundation transformers are well-suited here, as their autoregressive generation mirrors this forward simulation and their general-purpose design enables rich predictive modeling. We introduce TabMGP, an MGP built on TabPFN, a transformer foundation model that is currently state-of-the-art for tabular data. TabMGP produces credible sets with near-nominal coverage and often outperforms both existing MGP constructions and standard Bayes.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Modern sequence models (e.g., Transformers, linear RNNs, etc.) emerged as dominant backbones of recent deep learning frameworks, mainly due to their efficiency, representational power, and/or ability to capture long-range dependencies. Adopting these sequence models for graph-structured data has recently gained popularity as the alternative to Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). There is, however, a lack of a common foundation about what constitutes a good graph sequence model, and a mathematical description of the benefits and deficiencies in adopting different sequence models for learning on graphs. To this end, we first present Graph Sequence Model (GSM), a unifying framework for adopting sequence models for graphs, consisting of three main steps: (1) Tokenization, which translates the graph into a set of sequences; (2) Local Encoding, which encodes local neighborhoods around each node; and (3) Global Encoding, which employs a scalable sequence model to capture long-range dependencies within the sequences. This framework allows us to understand, evaluate, and compare the power of different sequence model backbones in graph tasks. Our theoretical evaluations of the representation power of Transformers and modern recurrent models through the lens of global and local graph tasks show that there are both negative and positive sides for both types of models. Building on this observation, we present GSM++, a fast hybrid model that uses the Hierarchical Affinity Clustering (HAC) algorithm to tokenize the graph into hierarchical sequences, and then employs a hybrid architecture of Transformer to encode these sequences. Our theoretical and experimental results support the design of GSM++, showing that GSM++ outperforms baselines in most benchmark evaluations.

How can we perform efficient inference and learning in directed probabilistic models, in the presence of continuous latent variables with intractable posterior distributions, and large datasets? We introduce a stochastic variational inference and learning algorithm that scales to large datasets and, under some mild differentiability conditions, even works in the intractable case. Our contributions are two-fold. First, we show that a reparameterization of the variational lower bound yields a lower bound estimator that can be straightforwardly optimized using standard stochastic gradient methods. Second, we show that for i.i.d. datasets with continuous latent variables per datapoint, posterior inference can be made especially efficient by fitting an approximate inference model (also called a recognition model) to the intractable posterior using the proposed lower bound estimator. Theoretical advantages are reflected in experimental results.

We formalize constraint-based structure learning of the "true" causal graph from observed data when unobserved variables are also existent. We provide conditions for a "natural" family of constraint-based structure-learning algorithms that output graphs that are Markov equivalent to the causal graph. Under the faithfulness assumption, this natural family contains all exact structure-learning algorithms. We also provide a set of assumptions, under which any natural structure-learning algorithm outputs Markov equivalent graphs to the causal graph. These assumptions can be thought of as a relaxation of faithfulness, and most of them can be directly tested from (the underlying distribution) of the data, particularly when one focuses on structural causal models. We specialize the definitions and results for structural causal models.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

This paper studies the topic modeling problem of tagged documents and images. Higher-order relations among tagged documents and images are major and ubiquitous characteristics, and play positive roles in extracting reliable and interpretable topics. In this paper, we propose the tag-topic models (TTM) to depict such higher-order topic structural dependencies within the Markov random field (MRF) framework. First, we use the novel factor graph representation of latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA)-based topic models from the MRF perspective, and present an efficient loopy belief propagation (BP) algorithm for approximate inference and parameter estimation. Second, we propose the factor hypergraph representation of TTM, and focus on both pairwise and higher-order relation modeling among tagged documents and images. Efficient loopy BP algorithm is developed to learn TTM, which encourages the topic labeling smoothness among tagged documents and images. Extensive experimental results confirm the incorporation of higher-order relations to be effective in enhancing the overall topic modeling performance, when compared with current state-of-the-art topic models, in many text and image mining tasks of broad interests such as word and link prediction, document classification, and tag recommendation.

We consider higher-order linear-chain conditional random fields (HO-LC-CRFs) for sequence modelling, and use sum-product networks (SPNs) for representing higher-order input- and output-dependent factors. SPNs are a recently introduced class of deep models for which exact and efficient inference can be performed. By combining HO-LC-CRFs with SPNs, expressive models over both the output labels and the hidden variables are instantiated while still enabling efficient exact inference. Furthermore, the use of higher-order factors allows us to capture relations of multiple input segments and multiple output labels as often present in real-world data. These relations can not be modelled by the commonly used first-order models and higher-order models with local factors including only a single output label. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed models for sequence labeling. In extensive experiments, we outperform other state-of-the-art methods in optical character recognition and achieve competitive results in phone classification.

We extend the simply-typed guarded lambda-calculus with discrete probabilities and endow it with a program logic for reasoning about relational properties of guarded probabilistic computations. This provides a framework for programming and reasoning about infinite stochastic processes like Markov chains. We demonstrate the logic sound by interpreting its judgements in the topos of trees and by using probabilistic couplings for the semantics of relational assertions over distributions on discrete types. The program logic is designed to support syntax-directed proofs in the style of relational refinement types, but retains the expressiveness of higher-order logic extended with discrete distributions, and the ability to reason relationally about expressions that have different types or syntactic structure. In addition, our proof system leverages a well-known theorem from the coupling literature to justify better proof rules for relational reasoning about probabilistic expressions. We illustrate these benefits with a broad range of examples that were beyond the scope of previous systems, including shift couplings and lump couplings between random walks.

In this paper, we study the problem of inference in high-order structured prediction tasks. In the context of Markov random fields, the goal of a high-order inference task is to maximize a score function on the space of labels, and the score function can be decomposed into sum of unary and high-order potentials. We apply a generative model approach to study the problem of high-order inference, and provide a two-stage convex optimization algorithm for exact label recovery. We also provide a new class of hypergraph structural properties related to hyperedge expansion that drives the success in general high-order inference problems. Finally, we connect the performance of our algorithm and the hyperedge expansion property using a novel hypergraph Cheeger-type inequality.

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the assumption of exchangeability is not valid. The key idea of the proposed method is to partition the non-exchangeable Markovian data from the HMM into exchangeable blocks by exploiting the de Finetti's Theorem for Markov Chains discovered by Diaconis and Freedman (1980). The permutations of the exchangeable blocks are viewed as randomizations of the observed Markovian data from the HMM. The proposed method provably retains all desirable theoretical guarantees offered by the classical conformal prediction framework in both exchangeable and Markovian settings. In particular, while the lack of exchangeability introduced by Markovian samples constitutes a violation of a crucial assumption for classical conformal prediction, the proposed method views it as an advantage that can be exploited to improve the performance further. Detailed numerical and empirical results that complement the theoretical conclusions are provided to illustrate the practical feasibility of the proposed method.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Learning complex functions that involve multi-step reasoning poses a significant challenge for standard supervised learning from input-output examples. Chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision, which provides intermediate reasoning steps together with the final output, has emerged as a powerful empirical technique, underpinning much of the recent progress in the reasoning capabilities of large language models. This paper develops a statistical theory of learning under CoT supervision. A key characteristic of the CoT setting, in contrast to standard supervision, is the mismatch between the training objective (CoT risk) and the test objective (end-to-end risk). A central part of our analysis, distinguished from prior work, is explicitly linking those two types of risk to achieve sharper sample complexity bounds. This is achieved via the *CoT information measure* I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), which quantifies the additional discriminative power gained from observing the reasoning process. The main theoretical results demonstrate how CoT supervision can yield significantly faster learning rates compared to standard E2E supervision. Specifically, it is shown that the sample complexity required to achieve a target E2E error epsilon scales as d/I_{D, h_star}^{CoT}(epsilon; calH), where d is a measure of hypothesis class complexity, which can be much faster than standard d/epsilon rates. Information-theoretic lower bounds in terms of the CoT information are also obtained. Together, these results suggest that CoT information is a fundamental measure of statistical complexity for learning under chain-of-thought supervision.

Diffusion models have emerged as a promising alternative to autoregressive models in modeling discrete categorical data. Yet diffusion models that directly work on discrete data space do not fully exploit the power of iterative refinement, as the signals are lost during the transition between discrete states. Existing continuous diffusion models for discrete data have limited performance compared to discrete approaches, and the unclear link between them restricts the development of diffusion models for discrete data. In this work, we propose a continuous diffusion model for language modeling that incorporates the geometry of the underlying categorical distribution. We establish a connection between the discrete diffusion and continuous flow on the statistical manifold, and building on the analogy, we introduce a simple design for the diffusion process that generalizes previous discrete diffusion models. We further propose a simulation-free training framework based on radial symmetry and a simple technique to address the high dimensionality of the manifold. Comprehensive experiments on language modeling benchmarks and other modalities show that our method outperforms existing discrete diffusion models and approaches the performance of autoregressive models. Codes available at https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM{https://github.com/harryjo97/RDLM}.

Auto-regressive language models factorize sequence probabilities and are trained by minimizing the negative log-likelihood (NLL) objective. While empirically powerful, a deep theoretical understanding of why this simple objective yields such versatile representations remains elusive. This work introduces a unifying analytical framework using Markov Categories (MCs) to deconstruct the AR generation process and the NLL objective. We model the single-step generation map as a composition of Markov kernels in the category Stoch. This compositional view, when enriched with statistical divergences, allows us to dissect information flow and learned geometry. Our framework makes three main contributions. First, we provide a formal, information-theoretic rationale for the success of modern speculative decoding methods like EAGLE, quantifying the information surplus in hidden states that these methods exploit. Second, we formalize how NLL minimization forces the model to learn not just the next token, but the data's intrinsic conditional stochasticity, a process we analyze using categorical entropy. Third, and most centrally, we prove that NLL training acts as an implicit form of spectral contrastive learning. By analyzing the information geometry of the model's prediction head, we show that NLL implicitly forces the learned representation space to align with the eigenspectrum of a predictive similarity operator, thereby learning a geometrically structured space without explicit contrastive pairs. This compositional and information-geometric perspective reveals the deep structural principles underlying the effectiveness of modern LMs. Project Page: https://github.com/asiresearch/lm-theory

Plenty of existing work has analyzed the abilities of the transformer architecture by describing its representational capacity with formal models of computation. However, the focus so far has been on analyzing the architecture in terms of language acceptance. We contend that this is an ill-suited problem in the study of language models (LMs), which are definitionally probability distributions over strings. In this paper, we focus on the relationship between transformer LMs and n-gram LMs, a simple and historically relevant class of language models. We show that transformer LMs using the hard or sparse attention mechanisms can exactly represent any n-gram LM, giving us a concrete lower bound on their probabilistic representational capacity. This provides a first step towards understanding the mechanisms that transformer LMs can use to represent probability distributions over strings.

Estimating the structure of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs, also known as Bayesian networks) is a challenging problem since the search space of DAGs is combinatorial and scales superexponentially with the number of nodes. Existing approaches rely on various local heuristics for enforcing the acyclicity constraint. In this paper, we introduce a fundamentally different strategy: We formulate the structure learning problem as a purely continuous optimization problem over real matrices that avoids this combinatorial constraint entirely. This is achieved by a novel characterization of acyclicity that is not only smooth but also exact. The resulting problem can be efficiently solved by standard numerical algorithms, which also makes implementation effortless. The proposed method outperforms existing ones, without imposing any structural assumptions on the graph such as bounded treewidth or in-degree. Code implementing the proposed algorithm is open-source and publicly available at https://github.com/xunzheng/notears.

Message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) emerged as powerful tools for processing graph-structured input. However, they operate on a fixed input graph structure, ignoring potential noise and missing information. Furthermore, their local aggregation mechanism can lead to problems such as over-squashing and limited expressive power in capturing relevant graph structures. Existing solutions to these challenges have primarily relied on heuristic methods, often disregarding the underlying data distribution. Hence, devising principled approaches for learning to infer graph structures relevant to the given prediction task remains an open challenge. In this work, leveraging recent progress in exact and differentiable k-subset sampling, we devise probabilistically rewired MPNNs (PR-MPNNs), which learn to add relevant edges while omitting less beneficial ones. For the first time, our theoretical analysis explores how PR-MPNNs enhance expressive power, and we identify precise conditions under which they outperform purely randomized approaches. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach effectively mitigates issues like over-squashing and under-reaching. In addition, on established real-world datasets, our method exhibits competitive or superior predictive performance compared to traditional MPNN models and recent graph transformer architectures.

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models, variational inference (VI) is often the preferable option. Unfortunately, VI makes strong assumptions on both the factorization and functional form of the posterior. In this work, we propose a new non-parametric variational approximation that makes no assumptions about the approximate posterior's functional form and allows practitioners to specify the exact dependencies the algorithm should respect or break. The approach relies on a new Langevin-type algorithm that operates on a modified energy function, where parts of the latent variables are averaged over samples from earlier iterations of the Markov chain. This way, statistical dependencies can be broken in a controlled way, allowing the chain to mix faster. This scheme can be further modified in a "dropout" manner, leading to even more scalability. We test our scheme for ResNet-20 on CIFAR-10, SVHN, and FMNIST. In all cases, we find improvements in convergence speed and/or final accuracy compared to SG-MCMC and VI.

Masked language models (MLM) do not explicitly define a distribution over language, i.e., they are not language models per se. However, recent work has implicitly treated them as such for the purposes of generation and scoring. This paper studies methods for deriving explicit joint distributions from MLMs, focusing on distributions over two tokens, which makes it possible to calculate exact distributional properties. We find that an approach based on identifying joints whose conditionals are closest to those of the MLM works well and outperforms existing Markov random field-based approaches. We further find that this derived model's conditionals can even occasionally outperform the original MLM's conditionals.

Large language models display remarkable capabilities in logical and mathematical reasoning, allowing them to solve complex tasks. Interestingly, these abilities emerge in networks trained on the simple task of next-token prediction. In this work, we present a theoretical framework for studying auto-regressive next-token predictors. We demonstrate that even simple models such as linear next-token predictors, trained on Chain-of-Thought (CoT) data, can approximate any function efficiently computed by a Turing machine. We introduce a new complexity measure -- length complexity -- which measures the number of intermediate tokens in a CoT sequence required to approximate some target function, and analyze the interplay between length complexity and other notions of complexity. Finally, we show experimentally that simple next-token predictors, such as linear networks and shallow Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), display non-trivial performance on text generation and arithmetic tasks. Our results demonstrate that the power of language models can be attributed, to a great extent, to the auto-regressive next-token training scheme, and not necessarily to a particular choice of architecture.

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizing flow, whereby a simple initial density is transformed into a more complex one by applying a sequence of invertible transformations until a desired level of complexity is attained. We use this view of normalizing flows to develop categories of finite and infinitesimal flows and provide a unified view of approaches for constructing rich posterior approximations. We demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of having posteriors that better match the true posterior, combined with the scalability of amortized variational approaches, provides a clear improvement in performance and applicability of variational inference.

A desired closure property in Bayesian probability is that an updated posterior distribution be in the same class of distributions --- say Gaussians --- as the prior distribution. When the updating takes place via a statistical model, one calls the class of prior distributions the `conjugate priors' of the model. This paper gives (1) an abstract formulation of this notion of conjugate prior, using channels, in a graphical language, (2) a simple abstract proof that such conjugate priors yield Bayesian inversions, and (3) a logical description of conjugate priors that highlights the required closure of the priors under updating. The theory is illustrated with several standard examples, also covering multiple updating.

A key to knowledge graph embedding (KGE) is to choose a proper representation space, e.g., point-wise Euclidean space and complex vector space. In this paper, we propose a unified perspective of embedding and introduce uncertainty into KGE from the view of group theory. Our model can incorporate existing models (i.e., generality), ensure the computation is tractable (i.e., efficiency) and enjoy the expressive power of complex random variables (i.e., expressiveness). The core idea is that we embed entities/relations as elements of a symmetric group, i.e., permutations of a set. Permutations of different sets can reflect different properties of embedding. And the group operation of symmetric groups is easy to compute. In specific, we show that the embedding of many existing models, point vectors, can be seen as elements of a symmetric group. To reflect uncertainty, we first embed entities/relations as permutations of a set of random variables. A permutation can transform a simple random variable into a complex random variable for greater expressiveness, called a normalizing flow. We then define scoring functions by measuring the similarity of two normalizing flows, namely NFE. We construct several instantiating models and prove that they are able to learn logical rules. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of introducing uncertainty and our model. The code is available at https://github.com/changyi7231/NFE.

A central goal of sequence modeling is designing a single principled model that can address sequence data across a range of modalities and tasks, particularly on long-range dependencies. Although conventional models including RNNs, CNNs, and Transformers have specialized variants for capturing long dependencies, they still struggle to scale to very long sequences of 10000 or more steps. A promising recent approach proposed modeling sequences by simulating the fundamental state space model (SSM) \( x'(t) = Ax(t) + Bu(t), y(t) = Cx(t) + Du(t) \), and showed that for appropriate choices of the state matrix \( A \), this system could handle long-range dependencies mathematically and empirically. However, this method has prohibitive computation and memory requirements, rendering it infeasible as a general sequence modeling solution. We propose the Structured State Space sequence model (S4) based on a new parameterization for the SSM, and show that it can be computed much more efficiently than prior approaches while preserving their theoretical strengths. Our technique involves conditioning \( A \) with a low-rank correction, allowing it to be diagonalized stably and reducing the SSM to the well-studied computation of a Cauchy kernel. S4 achieves strong empirical results across a diverse range of established benchmarks, including (i) 91\% accuracy on sequential CIFAR-10 with no data augmentation or auxiliary losses, on par with a larger 2-D ResNet, (ii) substantially closing the gap to Transformers on image and language modeling tasks, while performing generation 60times faster (iii) SoTA on every task from the Long Range Arena benchmark, including solving the challenging Path-X task of length 16k that all prior work fails on, while being as efficient as all competitors.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

Self-supervised learning excels at learning representations from large amounts of data. At the same time, generative models offer the complementary property of learning information about the underlying data generation process. In this study, we aim at establishing a principled connection between these two paradigms and highlight the benefits of their complementarity. In particular, we perform an analysis of self-supervised learning objectives, elucidating the underlying probabilistic graphical models and presenting a standardized methodology for their derivation from first principles. The analysis suggests a natural means of integrating self-supervised learning with likelihood-based generative models. We instantiate this concept within the realm of cluster-based self-supervised learning and energy models, introducing a lower bound proven to reliably penalize the most important failure modes and unlocking full unification. Our theoretical findings are substantiated through experiments on synthetic and real-world data, including SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100, demonstrating that our objective function allows to jointly train a backbone network in a discriminative and generative fashion, consequently outperforming existing self-supervised learning strategies in terms of clustering, generation and out-of-distribution detection performance by a wide margin. We also demonstrate that the solution can be integrated into a neuro-symbolic framework to tackle a simple yet non-trivial instantiation of the symbol grounding problem. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/emsansone/GEDI.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

The general sequential decision-making problem, which includes Markov decision processes (MDPs) and partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) as special cases, aims at maximizing a cumulative reward by making a sequence of decisions based on a history of observations and actions over time. Recent studies have shown that the sequential decision-making problem is statistically learnable if it admits a low-rank structure modeled by predictive state representations (PSRs). Despite these advancements, existing approaches typically involve oracles or steps that are computationally intractable. On the other hand, the upper confidence bound (UCB) based approaches, which have served successfully as computationally efficient methods in bandits and MDPs, have not been investigated for more general PSRs, due to the difficulty of optimistic bonus design in these more challenging settings. This paper proposes the first known UCB-type approach for PSRs, featuring a novel bonus term that upper bounds the total variation distance between the estimated and true models. We further characterize the sample complexity bounds for our designed UCB-type algorithms for both online and offline PSRs. In contrast to existing approaches for PSRs, our UCB-type algorithms enjoy computational tractability, last-iterate guaranteed near-optimal policy, and guaranteed model accuracy.

We introduce the Probabilistic Worldbuilding Model (PWM), a new fully-symbolic Bayesian model of semantic parsing and reasoning, as a first step in a research program toward more domain- and task-general NLU and AI. Humans create internal mental models of their observations which greatly aid in their ability to understand and reason about a large variety of problems. In PWM, the meanings of sentences, acquired facts about the world, and intermediate steps in reasoning are all expressed in a human-readable formal language, with the design goal of interpretability. PWM is Bayesian, designed specifically to be able to generalize to new domains and new tasks. We derive and implement an inference algorithm that reads sentences by parsing and abducing updates to its latent world model that capture the semantics of those sentences, and evaluate it on two out-of-domain question-answering datasets: (1) ProofWriter and (2) a new dataset we call FictionalGeoQA, designed to be more representative of real language but still simple enough to focus on evaluating reasoning ability, while being robust against heuristics. Our method outperforms baselines on both, thereby demonstrating its value as a proof-of-concept.

Can we learn more from data than existed in the generating process itself? Can new and useful information be constructed from merely applying deterministic transformations to existing data? Can the learnable content in data be evaluated without considering a downstream task? On these questions, Shannon information and Kolmogorov complexity come up nearly empty-handed, in part because they assume observers with unlimited computational capacity and fail to target the useful information content. In this work, we identify and exemplify three seeming paradoxes in information theory: (1) information cannot be increased by deterministic transformations; (2) information is independent of the order of data; (3) likelihood modeling is merely distribution matching. To shed light on the tension between these results and modern practice, and to quantify the value of data, we introduce epiplexity, a formalization of information capturing what computationally bounded observers can learn from data. Epiplexity captures the structural content in data while excluding time-bounded entropy, the random unpredictable content exemplified by pseudorandom number generators and chaotic dynamical systems. With these concepts, we demonstrate how information can be created with computation, how it depends on the ordering of the data, and how likelihood modeling can produce more complex programs than present in the data generating process itself. We also present practical procedures to estimate epiplexity which we show capture differences across data sources, track with downstream performance, and highlight dataset interventions that improve out-of-distribution generalization. In contrast to principles of model selection, epiplexity provides a theoretical foundation for data selection, guiding how to select, generate, or transform data for learning systems.

Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

Structured variational autoencoders (SVAEs) combine probabilistic graphical model priors on latent variables, deep neural networks to link latent variables to observed data, and structure-exploiting algorithms for approximate posterior inference. These models are particularly appealing for sequential data, where the prior can capture temporal dependencies. However, despite their conceptual elegance, SVAEs have proven difficult to implement, and more general approaches have been favored in practice. Here, we revisit SVAEs using modern machine learning tools and demonstrate their advantages over more general alternatives in terms of both accuracy and efficiency. First, we develop a modern implementation for hardware acceleration, parallelization, and automatic differentiation of the message passing algorithms at the core of the SVAE. Second, we show that by exploiting structure in the prior, the SVAE learns more accurate models and posterior distributions, which translate into improved performance on prediction tasks. Third, we show how the SVAE can naturally handle missing data, and we leverage this ability to develop a novel, self-supervised training approach. Altogether, these results show that the time is ripe to revisit structured variational autoencoders.

Although large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive potential on simple tasks, their breadth of scope, lack of transparency, and insufficient controllability can make them less effective when assisting humans on more complex tasks. In response, we introduce the concept of Chaining LLM steps together, where the output of one step becomes the input for the next, thus aggregating the gains per step. We first define a set of LLM primitive operations useful for Chain construction, then present an interactive system where users can modify these Chains, along with their intermediate results, in a modular way. In a 20-person user study, we found that Chaining not only improved the quality of task outcomes, but also significantly enhanced system transparency, controllability, and sense of collaboration. Additionally, we saw that users developed new ways of interacting with LLMs through Chains: they leveraged sub-tasks to calibrate model expectations, compared and contrasted alternative strategies by observing parallel downstream effects, and debugged unexpected model outputs by "unit-testing" sub-components of a Chain. In two case studies, we further explore how LLM Chains may be used in future applications

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful algorithm to sample latent variables from Bayesian models. The advent of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) frees users from writing inference algorithms and lets users focus on modeling. However, many models are difficult for HMC to solve directly, and often require tricks like model reparameterization. We are motivated by the fact that many of those models could be simplified by marginalization. We propose to use automatic marginalization as part of the sampling process using HMC in a graphical model extracted from a PPL, which substantially improves sampling from real-world hierarchical models.

Large language models (LLMs) have achieved significant performance gains via scaling up model sizes and/or data. However, recent evidence suggests diminishing returns from such approaches, motivating scaling the computation spent at inference time. Existing inference-time scaling methods, usually with reward models, cast the task as a search problem, which tends to be vulnerable to reward hacking as a consequence of approximation errors in reward models. In this paper, we instead cast inference-time scaling as a probabilistic inference task and leverage sampling-based techniques to explore the typical set of the state distribution of a state-space model with an approximate likelihood, rather than optimize for its mode directly. We propose a novel inference-time scaling approach by adapting particle-based Monte Carlo methods to this task. Our empirical evaluation demonstrates that our methods have a 4-16x better scaling rate over our deterministic search counterparts on various challenging mathematical reasoning tasks. Using our approach, we show that Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B-Instruct can surpass GPT-4o accuracy in only 4 rollouts, while Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct scales to o1 level accuracy in only 32 rollouts. Our work not only presents an effective method to inference-time scaling, but also connects the rich literature in probabilistic inference with inference-time scaling of LLMs to develop more robust algorithms in future work. Code and further information is available at https://probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io.

Structured output representation is a generative task explored in computer vision that often times requires the mapping of low dimensional features to high dimensional structured outputs. Losses in complex spatial information in deterministic approaches such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) lead to uncertainties and ambiguous structures within a single output representation. A probabilistic approach through deep Conditional Generative Models (CGM) is presented by Sohn et al. in which a particular model known as the Conditional Variational Auto-encoder (CVAE) is introduced and explored. While the original paper focuses on the task of image segmentation, this paper adopts the CVAE framework for the task of controlled output representation through attributes. This approach allows us to learn a disentangled multimodal prior distribution, resulting in more controlled and robust approach to sample generation. In this work we recreate the CVAE architecture and train it on images conditioned on various attributes obtained from two image datasets; the Large-scale CelebFaces Attributes (CelebA) dataset and the Caltech-UCSD Birds (CUB-200-2011) dataset. We attempt to generate new faces with distinct attributes such as hair color and glasses, as well as different bird species samples with various attributes. We further introduce strategies for improving generalized sample generation by applying a weighted term to the variational lower bound.

Modern data acquisition routinely produce massive amounts of event sequence data in various domains, such as social media, healthcare, and financial markets. These data often exhibit complicated short-term and long-term temporal dependencies. However, most of the existing recurrent neural network based point process models fail to capture such dependencies, and yield unreliable prediction performance. To address this issue, we propose a Transformer Hawkes Process (THP) model, which leverages the self-attention mechanism to capture long-term dependencies and meanwhile enjoys computational efficiency. Numerical experiments on various datasets show that THP outperforms existing models in terms of both likelihood and event prediction accuracy by a notable margin. Moreover, THP is quite general and can incorporate additional structural knowledge. We provide a concrete example, where THP achieves improved prediction performance for learning multiple point processes when incorporating their relational information.

Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Assessing the fidelity and diversity of the generative model is a difficult but important issue for technological advancement. So, recent papers have introduced k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) based precision-recall metrics to break down the statistical distance into fidelity and diversity. While they provide an intuitive method, we thoroughly analyze these metrics and identify oversimplified assumptions and undesirable properties of kNN that result in unreliable evaluation, such as susceptibility to outliers and insensitivity to distributional changes. Thus, we propose novel metrics, P-precision and P-recall (PP\&PR), based on a probabilistic approach that address the problems. Through extensive investigations on toy experiments and state-of-the-art generative models, we show that our PP\&PR provide more reliable estimates for comparing fidelity and diversity than the existing metrics. The codes are available at https://github.com/kdst-team/Probablistic_precision_recall.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Large language models often produce plausible but incorrect outputs. Existing heuristics such as HallBayes lack formal guarantees. We develop the first comprehensive theory of information-lift certificates under selective classification. Our contributions are: (i) a PAC-Bayes sub-gamma analysis extending beyond standard Bernstein bounds; (ii) explicit skeleton sensitivity theorems quantifying robustness to misspecification; (iii) failure-mode guarantees under assumption violations; and (iv) a principled variational method for skeleton construction. Across six datasets and multiple model families, we validate assumptions empirically, reduce abstention by 12--15\% at the same risk, and maintain runtime overhead below 20\% (further reduced via batching).

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

A fundamental question in modern machine learning is why large, over-parameterized models, such as deep neural networks and transformers, tend to generalize well, even when their number of parameters far exceeds the number of training samples. We investigate this phenomenon through the lens of information theory, grounded in universal learning theory. Specifically, we study a Bayesian mixture learner with log-loss and (almost) uniform prior over an expansive hypothesis class. Our key result shows that the learner's regret is not determined by the overall size of the hypothesis class, but rather by the cumulative probability of all models that are close, in Kullback-Leibler divergence distance, to the true data-generating process. We refer to this cumulative probability as the weight of the hypothesis. This leads to a natural notion of model simplicity: simple models are those with large weight and thus require fewer samples to generalize, while complex models have small weight and need more data. This perspective provides a rigorous and intuitive explanation for why over-parameterized models often avoid overfitting: the presence of simple hypotheses allows the posterior to concentrate on them when supported by the data. We further bridge theory and practice by recalling that stochastic gradient descent with Langevin dynamics samples from the correct posterior distribution, enabling our theoretical learner to be approximated using standard machine learning methods combined with ensemble learning. Our analysis yields non-uniform regret bounds and aligns with key practical concepts such as flat minima and model distillation. The results apply broadly across online, batch, and supervised learning settings, offering a unified and principled understanding of the generalization behavior of modern AI systems.

We introduce Probabilistic Dependent Type Systems (PDTS) via a functional language based on a subsystem of intuitionistic type theory including dependent sums and products, which is expanded to include stochastic functions. We provide a sampling-based semantics for the language based on non-deterministic beta reduction. Further, we derive a probabilistic logic from the PDTS introduced as a direct result of the Curry-Howard isomorphism. The probabilistic logic derived is shown to provide a universal representation for finite discrete distributions.